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The Fiscal Year 2003–04 promises to be a good one for the Indian economy ending five years of deceleration. However, is it going to be a recovery facilitated by the excellent monsoon of 2003 or by a substantial jump in private and public investment? The answer will not be found in the first Quarterly Statement on the Economy and Budget, which the Union Finance Minister, Jaswant Singh, has tabled in Parliament. It is perhaps unfair to expect the Finance Ministry report, the first quarterly review mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility and Management Act, to forecast the shape of the economic recovery in 2003–04. It is, however, important to look more closely at the broad picture of optimism painted in the review of the economy in April–June 2003.
The Center’s gross tax revenue grew by 14 per cent in the first quarter. This was slower than the growth in the corresponding period of 2002–03, but better than the 13.3 per cent increase budgeted for all of 2003–04. Direct tax collections have been better than expected and customs duty receipts are on target. What should be cause for worry is the decline by 16.6 per cent in collections from excise duty, which is still the single largest source of tax revenue. This trend is not consistent with the 5 per cent growth in industrial production in the first two months of the year. The Government's explanation for the fall in excise revenue, that this is a temporary phenomenon resulting from a change in tax procedures and a brief uncertainty in the textile industry, is not entirely convincing. If the Government's fiscal deficit has stayed under control in the first quarter, it is because a decline in interest payments following a dip in interest rates has brought spending down. The subsidy bill, always a problem, could however rise disconcertingly as the Government will be buying more grain and at higher prices. In a good agricultural year, farmers always tend to sell more grain to the state agencies, and procurement prices were raised recently.
There is no doubt that agricultural production will increase significantly this year in both the kharif and rabi seasons. Since the net output of the agriculture sector registered a negative growth of over 3 per cent in 2002–03, the present recovery will push up the growth rate of the economy in 2003–04. Higher incomes in agriculture will boost the demand for industrial products and services, contributing in the process to an all–round acceleration in growth. Revenue from direct and indirect taxes too should increase. All these developments provide the Government the opportunity to take initiatives that will help the economy move to a higher growth path. There are, however, no signs of such action by the Government. For instance, the Centre has done little about its proposed public–private partnership for boosting public investment in infrastructure, the main growth initiative announced in the Union budget. The Government has introduced cash management measures in some Ministries and retired a part of the expensive debt with banks, as promised in the budget. But these are only housekeeping measures. They will do nothing to provide a new impetus to growth.