Causation and Probability

Determinism is a philosophical doctrine that states that every event, including human action, is ultimately determined by causes that precede it.

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is denoted as P(A|B).

A necessary cause is a cause that must occur for an effect to occur, but it may not be the only cause. A sufficient cause is a cause that is enough to produce an effect, but it may not be the only cause.

Flipping a coin and getting heads is an example of a probabilistic cause because the outcome is not certain. There is a 50% chance of getting heads and a 50% chance of getting tails.

Joint probability is the probability of two or more events occurring together. It is denoted as P(A and B).

Stepping on a nail and getting tetanus is an example of a deterministic cause because the outcome is certain. If you step on a nail, you will get tetanus.

Independent probability is the probability of an event occurring independently of any other event. It is denoted as P(A) or P(B).

Flipping a coin and getting heads is an example of an independent cause because the outcome is not affected by any other event.

Correlation and causation are unrelated. Just because two events are correlated does not mean that one causes the other.

Watching more TV and being less physically active is an example of a correlation that does not imply causation. Just because people who watch more TV tend to be less physically active does not mean that watching TV causes people to be less physically active.

Marginal probability is the probability of an event occurring. It is denoted as P(A) or P(B).

Stepping on a nail and getting tetanus is an example of a necessary cause because tetanus is caused by a bacterium that is found in soil. If you step on a nail, you are likely to get tetanus.

Independent probability is the probability of two events occurring independently of each other. It is denoted as P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B).

Eating a certain food and getting sick is an example of a sufficient cause because eating the food is enough to cause the sickness.

Marginal probability is the probability of an event occurring. It is denoted as P(A) or P(B). The probability of an event not occurring is 1 - P(A) or 1 - P(B).