Time series and forecasting - class-XII

$\Rightarrow$  Moving-averages : $Smooth-out,the,time,series$.

Qualitative forecast is an estimation methodology which uses expert judgment, rather than numerical analysis. It predicts the direction, but not the magnitude of change in variable.

The first step in time series analysis is to plot the data on a graph.

In moving average method, we cannot find the trend value of some:between extreme periods.

Four types of variations estimated in time-series analysis are :-

By definition,
Noise is a component of time series which is the unsystematic sequence which follows irregular pattern of variations

$\Rightarrow$  A time series consist of $Short-term,variations,,Long-term,variations, and, Irregular,variation.$

$\Rightarrow$  Depression in business is : $Cyclical $.

From the definition of Time series,

Its a fact. Barometric methods are used to forecast cyclical variation.

$\Rightarrow$  A pattern that is repeated throughout a time series and has a recurrence period of at most one year is called $Seasonal, variation$.

$\Rightarrow$  Increase in the number of patients in the hospital due to heat stroke is : $Seasonal, variation.$

$\Rightarrow$  A complete cycle consist of period of : $Prosperity, and, recession$.

$\Rightarrow$  The general pattern of increase or decrease in economics or social phenomena is shown by : $Secular, trend$.

$\Rightarrow$  Secular trend can be measured by: $Four, methods.$

$\Rightarrow$  Damages due to floods, drought, strikes fires and political disturbances are : $Irregular$.

$\Rightarrow$  The method of moving average is used to find the : $Secular, trend.$

$\Rightarrow$  A complete cycle passes through : $Four, stages$.

$\Rightarrow$  The rise and fall of time series over periods longer than one year is called $Cyclical,variation.$

$\Rightarrow$  The secular trend is measured by the method of semi-averages when : $Trend,is,linear.$

$\Rightarrow$  Increased demand of admission in the subject of computer in Pakistan is : $Secular, trend$.

$\Rightarrow$  The fire in factory is an example of $Irregular, variations.$

$\Rightarrow$  Wheat crops badly damaged on account of rains is $Random, movement$

$\Rightarrow$  Moving average method is used for measurement of trend when : $Trend, is,linear$.

$\Rightarrow$  In time series seasonal variations can occur within a period of : $One,year$.

$\Rightarrow$  Example of seasonal variation is : $The,sale,of,air,condition,increases,during,summer.$