Introduction to time series and forecasting - class-XI

Four types of variations estimated in time-series analysis are :-

By definition,
Noise is a component of time series which is the unsystematic sequence which follows irregular pattern of variations

$\Rightarrow$  A time series consist of $Short-term,variations,,Long-term,variations, and, Irregular,variation.$

$\Rightarrow$  Depression in business is : $Cyclical $.

From the definition of Time series,

Its a fact. Barometric methods are used to forecast cyclical variation.

$\Rightarrow$  A pattern that is repeated throughout a time series and has a recurrence period of at most one year is called $Seasonal, variation$.

$\Rightarrow$  Increase in the number of patients in the hospital due to heat stroke is : $Seasonal, variation.$

$\Rightarrow$  A complete cycle consist of period of : $Prosperity, and, recession$.

$\Rightarrow$  The general pattern of increase or decrease in economics or social phenomena is shown by : $Secular, trend$.

$\Rightarrow$  Secular trend can be measured by: $Four, methods.$

$\Rightarrow$  Damages due to floods, drought, strikes fires and political disturbances are : $Irregular$.

$\Rightarrow$  The method of moving average is used to find the : $Secular, trend.$

$\Rightarrow$  A complete cycle passes through : $Four, stages$.

$\Rightarrow$  The rise and fall of time series over periods longer than one year is called $Cyclical,variation.$

$\Rightarrow$  The secular trend is measured by the method of semi-averages when : $Trend,is,linear.$

$\Rightarrow$  Increased demand of admission in the subject of computer in Pakistan is : $Secular, trend$.

$\Rightarrow$  The fire in factory is an example of $Irregular, variations.$

$\Rightarrow$  Wheat crops badly damaged on account of rains is $Random, movement$

$\Rightarrow$  Moving average method is used for measurement of trend when : $Trend, is,linear$.

$\Rightarrow$  In time series seasonal variations can occur within a period of : $One,year$.

$\Rightarrow$  Example of seasonal variation is : $The,sale,of,air,condition,increases,during,summer.$