Multiple choice

Let $u_1$ and $u_2$ be two urns such that $u_1$ contains 3 white, 2 red balls and $u_2$ contains only 1 white ball. A fair coin is tossed. If head appears, then 1 ball is drawn at random from urn $u_1$ and put into $u_2$. However, if tail appears, then 2 balls are drawn at random from $u_1$ and put into $u_2$. Now, 1 ball is drawn at random from $u_2$. Then, probability of the drawn ball from $u_2$ being white is

  1. $\dfrac{13}{30}$
  2. $\dfrac{23}{30}$
  3. $\dfrac{19}{30}$
  4. $\dfrac{11}{30}$
Reveal answer Fill a bubble to check yourself
B Correct answer
Explanation

Let H be the event of heads (p=0.5) and T be tails (p=0.5). If H, we move 1 ball from u1 to u2. If T, we move 2 balls. Calculate the probability of drawing a white ball from u2 by conditioning on the coin flip and the composition of the balls transferred.