There is great excitement at the local cricket oval. There is one ball remaining to be bowled and the home team needs four runs to win the match. The new batsman is old Basher Jones. Over his long career, Basher is known to hit a four once in every 25 balls that he faces. The team scorer estimates that he hits a six once in every 100 balls. Unfortunately, Basher is not as young as he was and the chances of him running four is nil. Also, Basher has a 50-50 chance to go out on any ball he faces. Discounting the probability of no-balls, wides and so on, what is the probability that the home team will win?